The September 2026 Ag Economy Barometer came in at 123 points, but with wide dispersion: the pessimistic group averaged 48 and the optimistic group 191. High input costs, particularly fuel and fertilizer, were the main concern for both groups.
The September 2026 edition of the Ag Economy Barometer (AEB), produced by Purdue University and CME Group, put the overall index at 123, a more positive level than that of its base period (the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016). The barometer is divided into the Index of Current Conditions (ICC), which came in at 105, and the Index of Future Expectations (IFE), which reached 131. However, behind those averages lie widely divergent positions among the roughly 400 U.S. agricultural producers surveyed each month, according to the analysis by Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi.
In addition to the average, the barometer calculates two measures of dispersion. The "negativity" index reports the percentage of farms that each month recorded an AEB of 0, which implies that their financial performance worsened this year, that they expect to be worse off a year from now, that they anticipate bad times for the agricultural economy over the next 12 months and five years, and that they consider it a bad time to think about large investments. In September 2026, 12% of all respondents had an index of 0, above the historical average of 8.7%. The second measure, the coefficient of variation (CV), averaged 68.2% in September 2026 versus a historical mean of 64.2%.
Around 80% of respondents indicated that they grew corn and soybeans in 2026. When these producers were split according to their index, the difference was substantial: the below-average group (below 124) recorded an AEB of just 48, while the above-average group (above 124) averaged 191. Some 12% of corn and soybean producers had an index of 0, and the coefficient of variation for the group as a whole was 67.4%, very similar to that of all September respondents.
The gaps were also reflected in investment decisions. The Farm Capital Investment Index, which measures whether respondents consider it a good or bad time to invest in machinery and buildings, was 13 in the pessimistic group versus 66 in the optimistic group; a reading below 100 indicates that those who see it as a bad time predominate. The Financial Performance Index, which projects performance over the next 12 months, averaged 92 for all corn and soybean producers, but broke down to 57 for the pessimistic group and 122 for the optimistic group, which was much more confident about its financial prospects.
High input costs were the main concern for both groups; in the open-ended comments, producers were particularly uneasy about fuel and fertilizer costs. When asked about the main factor limiting financial performance, 10% of the pessimistic group cited policy uncertainty, versus only 4% of the optimistic group. The optimistic group was also more confident about soybean exports, although 26% of its members expressed great concern about the relative competitiveness of U.S. soybean production.
The sharpest difference appeared in views on the direction of the United States: only 24% of the pessimistic group considered that the country is headed in the right direction, a figure that rose to 69% in the optimistic group. Differences were small regarding specialization in crop production, expectations for cash land rents or cover crop planting; in both groups, most expect rents to remain similar in 2027 compared with 2026.
The analysis concludes that, along with changes in the headline index, examining the distribution of individual responses offers a more complete picture of producer sentiment and of the differences in their concerns and expectations.
