The Rosario Board of Trade raised its 2026/27 wheat projection to 24.3 million tonnes, the second-largest harvest in history, with 6.95 million hectares planted and an average yield of 36 quintals.
The Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) raised its 2026/27 wheat harvest projection by half a million tonnes to 24.3 million tonnes, consolidating the campaign as the second most important in Argentine history. With harvesting advancing across 13% of the area, the initial expectations of 18 million tonnes were "pulverized": a six-million-tonne gap between the start of the year and now.
It is not the "megacampaign" of 2025/26, when 28.5 million tonnes were harvested, but it is a "super campaign". "There will be a wheat super campaign for the second consecutive year," said grain analyst Cristián Russo in his latest BCR report.
The start of the cycle was marked by high costs and urea touching historic ceilings, along with frosts and disease pressure, which pushed toward a decline in planted area, which at one point was estimated at 6.6 million hectares. On the other side of the scale was the weather, with projections that 2026 would be a year of heavy rainfall over profiles that were already carrying moisture since the summer.
The trend reversed amid a turbulent international climate. "In the end, urea fell, enthusiasm for planting grew and there were even unusual rains in the southwest in June that made it possible to end up planting 6.95 million hectares, the second-best mark in wheat history," Russo explained.
Contrary to expectations, the key to the final stretch lay in October and November, two months of wide temperature swings, below-average rainfall and low humidity that benefited the crop and reproduced the typical conditions of southern Buenos Aires across vast areas of the center of the country. Although some areas faced frosts and the late appearance of fusariosis, the cold prolonged wheat's final stages. "We will feel the effect above all in grain weight," the report states.
With the second-best estimated production and an area of 6.95 million hectares, the BCR projects an average yield of 36 quintals per hectare, the second-best record in the country. Of the total planted, an estimated 209,500 hectares will be left unharvested.
The Rosario exchange anticipates record yields in La Pampa, with 30.2 quintals per hectare, and in Santiago del Estero, with 26 quintals and lots in the best areas pulling 45, 60 and even 70 quintals. In Chaco yields are starting to close around 20 quintals, between 5 and 10 above expectations, and in northern Córdoba there is already talk of 35 quintals. The most relevant adjustment is in Buenos Aires, where, with 40.5 quintals, 340,000 tonnes are added.
Even so, Russo recalled, "it is still very far from reaching the maximum mark obtained in the recent 2025/26 cycle, of 47.5 quintals." And he concluded: "Without a doubt, environmental circumstances against all forecasts and in an unforeseen way played in favor of wheat. But in these estimated yields there is a potential that was only possible thanks to the huge investment the producer made when the value of urea fell, again betting heavily on fertilization and seed."
