Big Data

WASDE: No ‘October surprise’ as USDA dials in small changes

Getty Images/Nicholas Smith

USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, out Friday morning, didn’t have a lot of market-moving data for traders to digest. Bearish implications of USDA's unexpected increases to U.S. corn production and average yield was mitigated to some extent by an upward revision to 2024/25 exports and a downward revision to 2024/25 ending stocks.

Of particular note, analysts were expecting to see corn production potential move slightly lower, but USDA is now anticipating it will eclipse 15.203 billion bushels. Soybean production trended lower, although USDA didn’t trim its estimates as much as the average trade guess.

oybean futures extended this week's declines in the wake of USDA's higher than expected production estimate. November soybeans are down about 7.25 cents at $10.0750 after touching at three-week intraday low at $10.0725. December corn is down 2 cents at $4.1650 after sinking to $4.1575, a low for the month.

Wheat futures are also under pressure even though USDA boosted its 2024/25 export outlook and lowered its forecast for this year's ending stocks. December Chicago SRW wheat is down 8 cents at $5.9975, but is still up about 10 cents for the week. December HRW futures are down about 9.5 cents at $6.0150 and December spring wheat is down 10 cents at $6.4025.

Related:Export Report: Corn volume leads the way

Corn

Corn production is expected to exceed 15.2 billion bushels for just the second time on record, with USDA raising its estimates by 17 million bushels due to modest per-acre yield increase, which now sits at 183.8 bpa. Harvested area remains unchanged, with 82.7 million acres.

On the demand side, USDA increased total usage by 15.0 billion bushels, citing greater exports. All told, ending stocks were trimmed by 58 million bushels to 1.999 billion bushels. USDA held its season-average farm price steady, at $4.10 per bushel.

South American production potential for the 2024/25 season remained steady this month, with Brazil still at 5.000 billion bushels and Argentina still at 2.008 billion bushels. World ending stocks eased from 308.35 million metric tons in September down to 306.52 MMT.

Soybeans

USDA made fractional cuts to its estimates for soybean yields and production, which are now at 53.1 bpa and 4.582 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see a slightly larger cut, offering an average trade guess of 4.579 billion bushels prior to today’s report.

“With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies are lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion,” USDA noted. “With a slightly lower residual and no change to exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels.”

Related:USDA exports – Unknown buys corn, October 9, 2024

The agency’s season-average farm price for soybeans held steady this month, at $10.80 per bushel.

In South America, production potential for the 2024/25 season held steady from a month ago, with Brazil estimated at 6.210 billion bushels and Argentina estimated at 1.874 billion bushels. World ending stocks inched slightly higher, moving from 134.58 MMT in September up to 134.65 MMT.

Wheat

USDA lowered its all-wheat production estimates by 11 million bushels to 1.971 billion, reflecting the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary that was released late last month. The agency also bumped up its domestic use estimates by 10 million bushels to 120 million based on higher feed and residual use. Exports held steady, with 825 million bushels. That has projected ending stocks down 16 million bushels to 812 million, but that’s still 17% above year-ago levels.

USDA made no changes to its season-average farm price, which remains at $5.70 per bushel.

USDA also lowered its 2024/25 forecast for Russia's wheat crop from 83 MMT to 82 MMT, down 10% from 2023/24. That revision comes a day after Russia downsized its wheat crop forecast, an acknowledgment of unfavorable weather hampering the country's grain crop.

Related:Weekly Grain Movement: Grains post mostly rangebound results

World ending stocks increased from 257.22 MMT in September up to 257.72 MMT. That went against analyst expectations, with the average trade guess assuming a modest decline to 256.14 MMT.

Even with USDA's increase, global wheat supplies at the end of 2024/25 are still expected to drop to the lowest in nine years.

Fuente: farmprogress.com

Getty Images/Nicholas Smith Even with USDA's increase, global wheat supplies at the end of 2024/25 are still expected to drop to the lowest in nine years.