USDA forecasts for 2027 a slight decline in beef production, consumption and imports in Japan; an increase in inventories in New Zealand, with the U.S. as its main market; and in India, production of 5 million tons, with 1.9 million tons exported.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its estimates for 2026 and its forecasts for 2027 for the beef sectors of Japan, New Zealand and India. Japan is the world's third-largest importer, India the third-largest exporter and New Zealand the sixth-largest exporter, immediately after Argentina.
Beef production, consumption and imports are forecast to fall slightly, in a context of fewer cattle farms, stubborn inflation and a devalued currency, which steers consumption toward lower-priced meats.
Rising production costs are squeezing margins despite higher prices. The reduction in animals for slaughter in 2027 is seen across the three main breed groups: wagyu, Holstein and crossbreeds. In 2027, the trend of higher imports of cheaper frozen beef and lower purchases of chilled beef is expected to continue.
The beef sector will enter 2027 with larger inventories, a strong return on cattle farms and robust international demand. The cattle herd will grow by 160,000 head this year and a further 60,000 in 2027, a total of 2% over the two-year period, driven by favorable farmgate prices, better results, renewed investment and greater retention of breeding stock.
The continued integration of dairy cattle — which account for 60-70% of slaughter — into the beef supply chain also increases the beef available for export. Its main market is the United States, which accounts for 40% of the total, followed by China, Canada, the United Kingdom and ASEAN countries.
The cattle herd would post a marginal reduction as a result of a somewhat faster pace of increase in slaughter, based on firm domestic and external demand.
Domestic demand must be put in context: per capita consumption is under 2 kilos per year, although if those who practice Hinduism, who do not consume it, are excluded, that figure can be estimated at 11 kilos per capita. The report mentions the growth of the non-vegetarian population.
Production for 2027, mainly of water buffalo, is estimated at 5 million tons, of which 1.9 million tons would be exported. Sales of halal buffalo meat are gaining market in Egypt, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Indonesia, Jordan, the Philippines and emerging markets such as Uzbekistan.
The usual regulations remain in place: a ban on exporting cattle and on importing beef, and most states prohibit cattle slaughter, which is restricted to four of them.
