The USDA projects that world meat production will fall by 1.2 million tonnes (2%) in 2027, with the United States and Brazil accounting for the decline, while exports would retreat by less than 1% and Argentina would lead the increase in consumption.
The USDA projections, updated this week, anticipate that in 2027 world meat production will be 1.2 million tonnes, or 2%, lower than this year. Meanwhile, consumption and imports would hold steady, while exports would register a drop of less than 1%.
In terms of production, the United States will stand out with a reduction of more than one million tonnes, as will Brazil with 200,000. Together the two account for the global decline, since the rest of the countries, with much smaller movements up and down, will offset each other.
On the consumption side, Argentina will take first place with 5%, or 115,000 tonnes of growth, followed by India with 2%, or 50,000 tonnes. The increase in Argentina would mean per capita consumption rises by 2.5 kg.
In the imports category, China will stand out with 50,000 tonnes, or 1% more, and South Korea with 20,000 tonnes, or a 3% increase. By contrast, the United States will lower them by 78,000 tonnes, or 3%, and the European Union by 55,000 tonnes, or 12%.
Finally, the most pronounced changes among exporters will be the declines in Australia (80,000 tonnes, or 3%), the European Union (65,000 tonnes, or 11%), Brazil (50,000, or 1%) and Argentina (20,000, or 2%). On the increase side, India (50,000, or 3%), Uruguay (50,000, or 11%), Mexico (30,000 tonnes, or 8%) and Paraguay (20,000 tonnes, or 5%) will stand out.
The main commentary that comes with this report refers to Brazil, both because of the forecast of lower production, due to the start of a cattle herd retention phase, and because of the difficulties in its exports, especially with China, where its annual quota is well below its possibilities, and with the European Union, due to the long-standing suspension.
A point of view that Valor Carne adds is that, after the first-round elections in Brazil and according to the vast majority of analysts, the next government would be headed by Bolsonaro's party and could mean an appreciation of the real, which would add to the difficulties for exports. That element, the publication understands, was not taken into account in these projections.
