The USDA office in Kyiv projects Ukrainian corn exports of 10.2 million tons for 2026/27, less than half of the official report, and anticipates record stocks that would flood the global market. Brazil and Argentina take over in corn.
The USDA office in Kyiv published its update on the Ukrainian grain market with projections for the 2026/27 cycle that clash head-on with those of the agency's own official report. While the official report forecasts that Ukraine will export 22.0 million tons of corn, USDA technical staff in Kyiv estimate 10.2 million, less than half that figure. With an abundant harvest, the local office also expects a gigantic ending stock of 19.5 million tons, compared with the 2.86 million with which the 2025/26 campaign would close.
In wheat, the cut is not as dramatic but it still marks a significant disparity: the Kyiv office projects exports of 8.70 million tons for 2026/27, against 12.5 million in the official report. Wheat ending stocks would reach 29.3 million tons, above the 24.78 million of the previous campaign. The official report had been adjusting its Ukrainian wheat export estimates with a gradualist approach that contrasts with the document prepared by the technical staff present in the country.
The document attributes the marketing difficulties to the “logistics blackout” in the Black Sea, which keeps Ukraine and Russia unable to use the main agro-industrial port terminals. In the short term, the logistics restriction should be bullish; but once the military conflict is resolved and that route is reopened, the surplus grain available in both nations will flood the global market with cheap grain.
With Ukraine out of the game, Mercosur — with Brazil and Argentina at the head — took over the global supply of corn. Brazilian corn shipments should total 6.01 million tons in November, a figure only slightly higher than the same month of 2025. Nevertheless, thanks to domestic demand growth — driven to a large extent by corn ethanol — Brazil's exports this year will be substantially lower than in 2025.
In Argentina, corn export sales declarations (DJVE) for November so far amount to 3.31 million tons and, in the 2025/26 marketing cycle to date, they accumulate 39.8 million. There is still a long way to go to complete the 45.0 million forecast by the Secretariat of Agriculture, although the target is likely to be met, since the cycle ends in February next year.
The pressure of international demand on South American corn in the off-season is beneficial for producers in the region, although it represents a logistics problem for wheat, which is in the middle of its harvest period. For reference, the Rosario Board of Trade estimates that, with the quotations of November 4, the theoretical FAS for Rosario corn stood at USD 172.4/ton, while the average traded price, according to A3 Mercados, ended at USD 181.0/ton.
The fact that Mercosur is a reliable supplier throughout the year is not “free” for the United States. As of October 29, according to the USDA, US corn sales commitments for 2026/27 represented 30% of projected exportable supply, against 43% on the same date last year and 41% for the average of the last five years. In that context, FOB prices for South American corn remain firm, while values for US grain show a bearish trend in line with the seasonal harvest phase.
