USDA's Harvest Fuel Relief Program, with about $8 billion in diesel aid, could push government payments to farmers to a record $55.4 billion in 2026, nearly one-third of projected net farm income.
The Harvest Fuel Relief Program announced by USDA, which contemplates about $8 billion in diesel aid, could raise U.S. government payments to farmers to a record $55.4 billion in 2026, according to Progressive Farmer reports cited by farmdoc. That figure would surpass the previous high of $45.6 billion recorded in 2020, driven by trade aid and pandemic payments.
The $55.4 billion projection assumes the new diesel payments reach producers before the end of the calendar year, although USDA has released few details about the program's timeline. The amount would be just $10 billion below combined government payments in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and would equal just under one-third of total net farm income projected by USDA for 2026.
In late June, The Wall Street Journal noted that government funding has played an increasingly larger role in sustaining farm incomes over the past decade, with disbursements tied to the trade war during Trump's first and second terms, COVID-19 pandemic rescue funds and checks to offset low crop prices. In the current Middle East conflict, farmers have had to pay more for fuel to run machinery and for fertilizer for planting. While producer groups pushed for more aid, calling it vital to keep American agriculture afloat, some economists and analysts warn that it is not clear how much support is required to sustain the country's agricultural production.
Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, called the aid a "Band-Aid response" that does not correct the policy decisions that, he said, generate producers' financial problems. "Farmers never should have been put in this position," he said. "A Band-Aid response now, two weeks before the election, doesn't fix the problem."
Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and former rural development adviser at USDA, said the president's aid announcement to farmers before the midterm elections follows a pattern: presidential policies harm producers and then taxpayer funds are spent to offset the damage caused. Ajilore cited the $28 billion delivered under the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) because of the 2018-2019 trade war with China.
Farm Action recalled the $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments delivered last spring and the $13.8 billion in ARC/PLC payments reaching producers this month. "Another multibillion-dollar bailout is further proof of an agricultural economy in crisis," the organization stated. "Instead of addressing the policies and corporate power that raise costs and squeeze farm incomes, the government continues to rely on taxpayer dollars to keep producers afloat."
According to Politico, farmers won't know how much money to expect for several more weeks; even then, if approved, they will not receive the diesel payments before late November or early December at the earliest, according to three people close to the plans who requested anonymity. Two weeks before the election, the new aid could arrive too late to convince some voters.
Top Republicans are betting that the announcement will stem the Republican Party's loss of votes in farm states, especially in the Midwest, where Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan are running difficult campaigns. In some cases, they have publicly broken with Trump over high prices and the war.
