The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn crop to 403.7 million tonnes and the soybean ending stock to 8.1 million, with stock-to-use ratios of 10.8% and 6.5%, respectively. Corn, soybeans, derivatives and wheat climbed sharply in Chicago.
After two months of reports that helped push corn and soybean prices lower, the USDA released on Tuesday a monthly world supply and demand report that proved favorable for both grains' prices.
In corn, the agency cut its estimate for the 2026/27 US crop to 403.7 million tonnes, from 407.2 million forecast a month earlier. With that adjustment, ending stocks for the cycle were projected at 44.6 million tonnes, against 46.9 million in the October report, and the stock-to-use ratio came in at 10.8%, below the 11.3% previously estimated. While it is not a critical level, it is not comfortable either.
In soybeans, the USDA kept the 2026/27 US crop almost stable at 124.4 million tonnes, but raised its export projection, which led to a drop in forecast ending stocks to 8.1 million tonnes, from 8.5 million the previous month. The stock-to-use ratio fell from 6.9% in October to 6.5% now, a tight balance for the oilseed.
The fact that the United States cannot rebuild soybean inventories represents a latent bullish factor that could be unleashed by a production shortfall or an unexpected increase in demand. In that sense, it is not ruled out that at some point in 2027 an increase in European demand for US soybeans and soybean meal could be prompted, if Brazilian shipments to the EU-27 face difficulties in complying with regulation 1115 (EUDR). Brazil is going through an export boom of soybeans to the European Union and, although Europeans are seeking to bring forward imports of Brazilian soybeans to mitigate potential disruptions, that strategy has a logistical limit.
After the report, corn, soybean and soybean product prices at CME Group (Chicago) posted a significant recovery. Wheat contracts also rose in the US benchmark market.
