USDA revealed a processing error in its September 2026 corn data: Nebraska rose to 182 bushels per acre and Kansas fell to 118. The revision reignited criticism over the market impact and confidence in the reports.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revealed a processing error that affected September 2026 data on plant populations, ear counts, yields and corn production in Kansas and Nebraska. The error also affected September averages for plant populations and ear counts in 10 states, as well as the national corn yield and production forecasts.
The agency said it corrected the affected September data in its Crop Production reports and in the Quick Stats database. In Nebraska — the country's third-largest corn-producing state — the September yield was revised upward to 182 bushels per acre, from the original 177 bushels, an increase of nearly 3%. For Kansas, the September yield was cut by about 2%, to 118 bushels per acre from the original 121. The national September yield estimate went from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels per acre.
The October forecasts, published on Oct. 9, were reviewed and validated and showed no changes, according to the agency. However, NASS did not specify exactly what the error consisted of or why it occurred.
The revision reignited the debate over the influence of USDA reports on corn futures, farm profitability and grain marketing strategies. USDA forecasts influence commodity prices, crop insurance decisions, storage strategies and financial planning across the entire agricultural chain. Doubts also emerged about the reliability of the data following federal staffing reductions that raised concerns about the agency's technical capacity.
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) criticized the error and its effect on the market. Its president, Matt Frostic, said: "Recent reports by NASS have cost corn growers BILLIONS of dollars in market value, at a time when profit margins were already marginal, at best, and the cost for fuel and other inputs are at all-time highs. Corn prices dropped in conjunction with the release of recent reports and have only continued to drop. An error of this magnitude is unacceptable, and only further erodes farmer confidence in the agency's ability to produce statistically sound and accurate reports."
According to analyst Jim Wiesemeyer, the correction resolves an important inconsistency in the Nebraska data and substantially reduces the apparent monthly yield jump, but it leaves the higher October national forecast standing and leaves NASS with the task of explaining how an error that affected market-sensitive forecasts passed through its publication controls, and why it took the agency so long to issue a correction.
