Beef imports under the Trump administration's temporary quota reached only 37,486 of the 100,000 tons planned for the first tranche, and the average price of ground beef barely fell 16 cents a pound.
Beef imports under the temporary tariff-rate quota (TRQ) of President Donald Trump's administration fell well short of the first monthly allocation, limiting the additional supply that reached the U.S. market, according to University of Arkansas economist James Mitchell. The policy allows 300,000 metric tons of beef to enter over 90 days, distributed in three monthly tranches of 100,000 metric tons; however, through September 28 only 37,486 metric tons had entered under the first tranche, leaving 62,514 metric tons unused.
Mitchell estimates that only between 8,054 and 21,936 metric tons might correspond to beef that would not otherwise have entered the United States. The range stems from different comparisons using USDA forecasts and historical imports from eligible countries.
The tariff exemption applies only to the 'other' countries tariff-rate quota, in which Brazil and Paraguay are the only significant beef exporters. The White House labeled that quota the 'affordable' TRQ.
Multiple Brazilian media reported that the country's trade ministry announced September beef sales to the United States of at least 44,400 metric tons. Even adding Paraguayan exports, the total would barely cover half of the 100,000-ton September quota.
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reported that record imports, together with the suspension of the tariff-rate quota for beef trimmings, have not reduced ground beef prices for consumers. In fact, its analysis reveals that, since the presidential proclamation, prices remained the same as before the quota change in 30 of 41 grocery stores monitored across the United States.
In the sample analyzed, the average price of ground beef barely moved: it went from $7.29 a pound on September 2 to $7.13 a pound on September 23, a reduction of 16 cents, equivalent to about 2%.
Mitchell explained that 'the main point is that 100,000 metric tons of new beef imports did not materialize in September, and there was no noticeable change in retail beef prices. Even imported beef still has to undergo further processing and move through the marketing system before it is sold to consumers.'
The economist added that 'increasing the amount of beef that can enter the United States does not mean that the full amount will be imported, nor does it mean that any increase in imports will immediately translate into lower retail prices.'
On the political front, President Trump bet that importing more beef would lower prices enough to mitigate the political cost of ranchers' anger, but the bet has not paid off, Politico reported. Prices have barely moved, ranchers remain incensed and vulnerable Republicans in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas are struggling to convince rural voters to turn out in November, amid economic headwinds driven by the president's policies.
'There's a lot of frustration and anger,' said Glenn Brunkow, president of the nonpartisan Kansas Farm Bureau and a fifth-generation rancher in Pottawatomie County, a heavily Republican area.
The market fundamentals that raised beef prices have not disappeared. Tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand continue to support higher beef prices.
