A Farmdoc analysis estimates that the combined loss at harvest for the nine U.S. COP crops totaled US$ 28.1 billion in 2025. The safety net covered all but US$ 3.7 billion.
The combined loss at harvest for the nine crops included in the U.S. cost of production (COP) calculation —barley, corn, oats, peanuts, rice, seed cotton, sorghum, soybeans and wheat— totaled US$ 28.1 billion in 2025, according to a Farmdoc (University of Illinois) analysis by Carl Zulauf and Henrique Monaco. The country's farm safety net covered all but US$ 3.7 billion of that loss.
In addition, the nine crops collectively broke even over the 2023-2025 crop years, as US$ 62.5 billion in safety net payments offset market losses of similar magnitude at harvest. That breakeven includes an opportunity cost charge for owned land (that is, land not rented) and unpaid farm family labor.
The U.S. crop safety net covered 98% of harvest market losses during the long period of consecutive losses from 1981-2006. In the most recent period of consecutive losses, 2014-2020, the safety net covered slightly more than harvest losses. The net return for 2023-2025 falls between those two prior periods.
"It is hard to argue that the U.S. crop sector is in financial distress," the authors maintain, noting that recent safety net policy has operated to eliminate the sector's losses. They acknowledge that there are individual farms under stress and going bankrupt, but they recall that profitability always varies across farms: if the sector covers all its costs, more than a few operations —perhaps even a majority— are making money, and some probably a lot.
The authors argue that "eliminating all or almost all sector losses raises stark questions" and refer to the question posed in a Feb. 5, 2026 Farmdoc Daily article: "Has the U.S. crop safety net become excessive?"
In a market economy, sector losses may be distasteful, but they are important: "Without sector losses, inefficiency gains the upper hand, leading to a growing lack of competitiveness." The analysis cites a Sept. 25, 2026 Farmdoc Daily article on land values and U.S. competitiveness vis-à-vis Brazil, within a broad body of work documenting the decline in U.S. competitiveness and its share of world production and trade.
With the sector breaking even, costs have no reason to decline. The all-input crop price index calculated by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) was 10% higher in August 2026 than in August 2023, and 1% higher once inflation as measured by the consumer price index is removed. "Does the U.S. want to protect the crop input sector as well as farmers?" they ask.
Removing sector losses also reinforces cropland's attractiveness as a risk-reducing component of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Unless they are well diversified, farmers will find it hard to compete for land with diversified nonfarm investment funds.
These questions point to the central policy issue raised by the analysis: "What sector loss is appropriate to facilitate the crop sector the U.S. wants in its future?"
