The National Milk Producers Federation identified six House of Representatives districts rated "toss-up" with implications for agriculture and dairy policy; on Oct. 9, two Iowa races were updated to "lean democrat."
Just weeks before the November legislative elections in the United States, the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) presented six House of Representatives races rated "toss-up" with implications for agriculture and dairy policy. The session was held on Oct. 1 at the World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wisconsin, and was led by Trey Forsyth, NMPF's vice president of government and regulatory affairs, and Mary Knigge, vice president of government relations at Dairy Farmers of America.
As of Sept. 25, the Cook Political Report rated 22 House races as "toss-up"; of that group, the presenters highlighted six. On Oct. 9, after the original publication, the Cook Political Report itself updated the races for Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts to "lean democrat."
In California, Republican David Valadao, a former dairy farmer from the Central Valley and a member of the House Agriculture Committee, faces Democrat Randy Villegas. "That's going to be a tough seat to hold onto," Knigge said.
In Colorado's 8th District, Republican Gabe Evans will face Democrat Manny Rutinel. Forsyth and Knigge noted that this is a district with a strong dairy and livestock presence: according to the most recent Census of Agriculture, it accounted for 16% of the state's total agricultural sales, and livestock, poultry and their products made up 79% of the district's sales. "Gabe Evans has done a lot of agricultural work. He doesn't sit on the agriculture committee, but he signed the Securing Agriculture Workforce Act," Knigge said. That legislation, introduced by House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson, would expand H-2A visa eligibility to agricultural sectors that require year-round workers, including the dairy industry.
In Arizona, Republican Juan Ciscomani will face JoAnna Mendoza. The presenters noted that this race has implications for water policy and border issues. The district includes the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry, where the USDA reopened livestock trade with Mexico for the first time after nearly a year of suspension due to the New World screwworm outbreak.
In Wisconsin, Republican Derrick Van Orden is being challenged by Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Van Orden sits on the House Agriculture Committee and is vice chair of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Subcommittee. "She grew up on a Wisconsin dairy farm, so that's another race we're closely watching," Knigge said.
One of the two Iowa races originally rated "toss-up" pits Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Christina Bohannan in the third consecutive matchup between the two. According to the Census of Agriculture, the district has more than 18,000 farms spread across 5.4 million acres. "There are a couple of very tight races in Iowa that I think will depend largely on what happens with the broader Senate and gubernatorial races in Iowa," Forsyth said.
The other Iowa race is between Republican Zach Nunn, a member of the House Agriculture Committee, and Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. "You've seen Nunn step up every time ethanol enters the conversation. That's when he's very willing to buck House leadership. They've had a few of those problems with year-round E15 availability," Forsyth said.
