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A Rabobank report argues that the partial blockade imposed by the European Union on Brazilian beef imports will cause a rise in prices in the community market during the second half. The analysis anticipates that European consumers will face greater inflationary pressure in the segment.
The European decision to restrict imports from specific Brazilian plants responded to questioning about compliance with sanitary and deforestation standards. Brazil denied the accusations but failed to reverse the measure in the short term.
The conflict reopened the debate on the coherence between the bloc's trade and environmental policies.
According to Rabobank, the reduction of Brazilian supply in the European market will cause price increases of between 5% and 12% in different cuts, with more marked effects in higher value-added products. European importers will seek to diversify suppliers, mainly toward Argentina and Uruguay.
The report also projects that the measure could be partially reversed if Brazil achieves verifiable advances in traceability.
The lower European supply of Brazilian beef is an opportunity for South American exporters who comply with the required environmental standards. For Argentina and Uruguay, the moment is propitious to deepen commercial relations with the bloc.
At the geopolitical level, the episode also exposes the tensions between trade liberalization and regulatory demands.
