Ignacio Iriarte described the global beef trade as a "promising outlook", with prices that already surpass 2022 levels. The Hilton ton is quoted at $22,000 (+30% year-on-year) and cuts to China rose 40%.
The global beef trade is experiencing a promising outlook, with international prices already above 2022 values, considered until recently unrepeatable. That was the assessment of analyst Ignacio Iriarte, who warned that, barring a black swan event, sustained demand will keep prices high next year.
The most recent report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that growth in global beef demand will slow next year, but, judging by beef and cattle prices, the market appears to have a different view of the business. "Barring a black swan event, global trade and international beef prices present a promising outlook for next year," Iriarte said.
"In every country, steer and beef prices in dollars are above the values reached in 2022, which until recently were considered unrepeatable," the analyst added.
The Secretariat of Agriculture reported that the average value of a ton of beef rose 75% over the last two years, with uneven but significant gains depending on the destination. The Hilton ton, a quota that includes high-value cuts and whose tariffs were brought to zero following the European Union-Mercosur agreement, is quoted at $22,000 per ton, 30% more than a year ago, according to statistics from the Asociación de Productores Exportadores (APEA).
Sales to the United States are closed at prices of $8,500 to $9,000 per ton, a market affected by the larger inflow of beef after Brazil was authorized a 300,000-ton quota. In the case of China, cuts such as shank and chuck sell at $7,700 per ton, when a year ago they traded at $5,400, a 40% year-on-year increase. Cow beef in six cuts is exported at $6,300 per ton, compared with $5,000 in November last year, a 25% improvement.
Sales to Israel are closed at $12,500 to $12,700 per ton, when a year ago the price was $9,800, which represents a 30% improvement.
The improvement in beef prices was partially reflected in cattle prices. Visec-eligible steers sell for between 8,000 and 8,100 pesos per kilo carcass weight, a 20% year-on-year improvement. Measured in dollars, the value went from $5 to $5.50 per kilo carcass weight, a 10% gain.
Iriarte detailed the performance of the main producing countries: "While in the United States, with a wholesale price of $7.95 per kilo carcass weight, quotations stand 22% above two years ago, in Brazil, at $4.40, the increase is 38%. In Paraguay, at $5.53 per kilo, the two-year increase is 72%; in Uruguay, at $6.08, the rise is 54%. In the European Union, at $7.43, the improvement is 35% in two years. In Argentina, at $5.56, the increase is 37%, and in Australia, at $6.19 per kilo carcass weight, the increase compared with two years ago is 48%."
