U.S. producers have until December 11, 2026 to choose between ARC-CO and PLC. With current projections, ARC-CO would pay more on corn and soybeans, and PLC would have a slight edge on wheat.
U.S. producers have until December 11, 2026 to make their commodity program election decisions for the 2026 crop year. With current price projections and yield expectations, ARC-CO would likely trigger larger payments on corn and soybean base acres in most situations, while for wheat expected payment levels are more similar, with a slight edge to PLC in most cases, according to an analysis by Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Henrique Monaco and Carl Zulauf published by Farmdoc.
The changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) modified the ARC and PLC programs and took effect for the 2025 program, continuing in 2026. Those changes increased both the likelihood and the size of payments compared with the 2018 farm bill versions. In 2025, the modifications meant producers received the higher of the ARC-CO or the PLC payment.
For 2026, the enrollment decision returns, although on a much later date than the usual March 15 deadline, because the Farm Service Agency (FSA) finalized the base acre updates that were also part of the law and that will take effect for the 2026 program. The December 11, 2026 deadline was announced in a September USDA press release. As a reminder, any program payment triggered for the 2026 crop year would not be received until October 2027.
For PLC payments to be triggered on corn base acres, the marketing year average (MYA) price would have to fall below the effective reference price (ERP) of $4.42. The 2026/27 MYA for corn is currently projected at $4.70 per bushel, so no PLC payments would be triggered for corn at the current projection. The ARC benchmark price for 2026 is $5.03 per bushel. Since ARC-CO is a county-level revenue program, average county yields will be combined with the actual MYA to determine payments. In counties with 2026 yields at benchmark levels, ARC-CO payments would be triggered at an actual MYA price of $4.53 or less, based on ARC-CO's revenue guarantee of 90% of benchmark revenue (0.90 x 5.03 = 4.53). In counties with yields above benchmark, lower prices would be needed for ARC-CO to generate payments, while in counties with yields below benchmark ARC-CO could trigger payments at higher prices.
For soybeans, the October WASDE projected MYA for 2026 is $12 per bushel, well above the ERP of $10.71, the price below which PLC payments would be triggered on soybean base acres. The ARC benchmark of $12.17 implies that counties with actual yields at benchmark levels would trigger ARC-CO payments at a soybean price of $10.95 or less (0.90 x 12.17 = 10.95). As with corn, under current projections ARC-CO would generate larger payments than PLC in counties where actual yields are expected to be near or below the 2026 benchmark.
The projected MYA price for wheat in the October WASDE is $6.30 per bushel, $0.05 below the 2026 wheat ERP of $6.35. If the actual wheat MYA matched the current projection, a payment rate of $0.05 per bushel would be triggered on any base acres enrolled in PLC. The ARC benchmark price for wheat in 2026 is $6.98 per bushel. In counties with actual yields at benchmark levels, wheat prices at or below $6.28 per bushel would trigger ARC-CO payments. In counties with wheat yields near or above benchmark levels, PLC will have the larger expected payment for most farms, while farms in counties with poor wheat yield performance may expect larger payments from ARC-CO.
PLC program payments will not be known with certainty until marketing year prices are finalized, which will not happen until the end of the 2026/27 marketing year: May 31 for wheat and August 31 for corn and soybeans. ARC-CO payments will also depend on final county yields, which FSA typically releases between mid- and late June. Thus, farmers will make their enrollment decisions based on projections and expectations, although the delayed December 11 deadline offers more information than in previous years, when enrollment had to be completed in the spring.
The Farmdoc team offers two decision tools. The Farm Bill What-If Tool allows users to compare ARC-CO and PLC payments under different price and county yield scenarios. The online ARC/PLC Calculator provides expected payment estimates based on individual farm scenarios. In an example of non-irrigated corn in Champaign County, Illinois, the expected ARC-CO payment is around $45 per base acre, while the PLC payment is just under $16 per acre; the likelihood of an ARC-CO payment in that scenario is 54% and that of PLC is 29%.
The November WASDE report will provide updated price projections for the 2026 marketing year and could shift payment expectations. USDA's November crop production report, scheduled for November 10, will offer updated state-level yield and production estimates. The online calculator will be updated once more in the days following the November 10 WASDE report. Farmdoc will also offer a webinar titled "Final Look at the 2026 ARC/PLC Decision" on Tuesday, November 17. The delayed December 11 deadline also allows farmers to have more information about their individual 2026 yields before deciding, which facilitates a better analysis of the individual ARC program (ARC-IC), which can be a good option for farms with localized yield losses on specific FSA farm numbers.
