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The US cattle cycle shows contrasting indicators during 2026: on the one hand, production remains firm and beef shipments grow, but on the other feedlot margins are squeezed by the rise in corn costs. Analysts anticipate a transition year before a possible retention phase.
The US cattle herd is going through a phase of moderate liquidation, with an inventory that has touched multi-decade lows. That dynamic supports live cattle prices but pressures feedlot margins when feed costs rise.
The mixed signals coming from the different links in the chain make projections for late 2026 vary depending on the source consulted.
According to the latest USDA data, slaughter weights remain elevated and beef production grew compared to 2025. However, feedlot margins fell to multi-year lows, partly due to the firmness of corn after the drought that affected several producing regions.
Beef exports showed stable behavior, with a slight increase in shipments to Asia.
Margin compression could anticipate a breeding herd retention phase by 2027, which would moderate future supply and sustain cattle prices. For consumers, the firmness of production helps avoid sudden spikes in beef prices.
At the international level, the transition of the US cycle could open opportunities for South American exporters in markets where the US reduces its share.
