Beef prices in the United States have climbed nearly 70% since 2020 and the national cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level since 1951. Tyson expects losses of up to $775 million in its beef business.
Since 2020, beef prices at US retailers have soared around 70%, more than double the overall inflation rate. Consumers are unhappy and President Donald Trump is pointing the finger at the middlemen: the packers that buy cattle from producers and turn it into meat are, in his words, "a nefarious monopoly," as he said last month on Truth Social.
The industry is concentrated: just four companies — Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS and National Beef — slaughter 85% of US cattle. Antitrust authorities have had this oligopoly in their sights for some time. Tyson, Cargill and JBS reached settlements to resolve lawsuits accusing them of price fixing between 2014 and 2022, although all denied any wrongdoing.
Despite record beef prices, the "Big Processors" are not thriving. Shares of Tyson, the largest of these companies, have plunged 40% since 2021 and 7% since it cut its profit forecast on September 3. The company expects its beef business, which accounts for 40% of its revenue, to post losses of up to $775 million this year. The troubles in that division dragged the company's overall operating margin from 8.5% in 2021 to 2.6%. Brazil-based JBS reported that its North American business lost $427 million in the first half of 2026.
Joshua Specht, author of Red Meat Republic, explains that "beef is a boom-and-bust industry, partly because it is at the mercy of biological cycles." Typically, a down phase begins with a drought, which drives up feed costs and leads ranchers to shrink their herds. When cattle are scarce, prices rise and producers are incentivized to start rebuilding their herds; because it takes about five years to rebuild them, a typical industry cycle lasts roughly a decade.
That cycle largely explains the packers' current problems. By 2014, several years of drought had already forced US ranchers to shrink their herds and cattle began to grow scarce. "When prices peaked, every rancher jumped in and started expanding their herds as fast as they could, and they basically collapsed the market in a very short period," says Alexia Howard, an analyst at brokerage Bernstein. So far there are no signs of rebuilding: "Everyone has that mindset that once you get burned, you don't get burned twice," Howard adds.
Since 2020, the US herd has shrunk by almost a tenth, to its lowest level since 1951, while the price of a steer has risen 120%. So packers are paying more than ever to supply their slaughter plants, but retail prices did not keep pace with that increase. As beef became more expensive, consumers shifted to chicken, whose price has held steady in real terms — that is, once inflation is discounted.
To cut costs, the packers are taking a knife to their operations. In August, Tyson closed plants in Illinois and Utah, eliminating some 3,200 jobs and about 15% of its beef processing capacity. This year, Cargill closed a plant in Wisconsin and JBS closed facilities in Pennsylvania and Tennessee, with the loss of 2,000 jobs.
Losses will continue — and beef will stay expensive — until ranchers rebuild their herds. On August 31, the Secretary of Agriculture announced the Ranchers First initiative, which makes it easier for producers to bypass the middlemen by processing their own meat and provides financial support to small packers. However, David Anderson of Texas A&M University warns that it will not have a significant impact on prices: "The numbers would be so small… that they wouldn't change the market as a whole at all." US consumers hoping for some relief may have to wait until the cows come home.
