Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections, driven by victories in farm states such as Kansas and Iowa. The new majority faces negotiation of the farm bill, input costs and tariffs.
Democrats secured control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, buoyed by a string of victories in farm states that Republicans had considered safe. The flip redefines who will write the next farm bill and the direction of trade policy, in a scenario marked by record diesel prices, rising beef prices, tariffs and the wait for a new farm bill.
In Kansas, a state that Donald Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, Democrat Adam Hamilton defeated Sen. Roger Marshall, a member of the Agriculture Committee, and will send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in nearly a century. Hamilton and his allies hit Marshall over the high prices stemming from the war with Iran and Trump's tariff agenda, as well as the healthcare cuts in the law Republicans passed; rising diesel and beef prices hit Kansas's farm economy particularly hard.
In Iowa, the top producer of corn, ethanol, biodiesel, hogs and eggs, Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for the seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. In another surprise, Sarah Trone Garriott is projected to win the seat of Rep. Zach Nunn, another House Agriculture Committee member; with 91% of votes counted, Garriott took 54.6% to Nunn's 45.4%. Democrat Rob Sand, the current state auditor, is projected to win Iowa's gubernatorial race against Republican Zach Lahn.
Nearly half a dozen House seats held by Republicans on the Agriculture Committee changed hands. Democratic Rep. Don Davis, also a committee member, overcame redistricting challenges and was reelected in North Carolina with 50.1% of the vote to 46.8% for Republican Laurie Buckhout. In that same state, Republican David Rouzer declared victory by less than one percentage point, although the AP had not yet called the race, and House Rules Committee Chairwoman Virginia Foxx remained in a technical tie at 48.7%.
The moderate Blue Dog Caucus, historically tied to rural districts, added at least 22 Democrats backed by its PAC and is on track to more than double its current 10 members, approaching its all-time high of 54 lawmakers in 2009.
In Mississippi, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a member of the Agriculture Committee and a former state agriculture commissioner, was trailing Democrat Scott Colom 48.9% to 49% on Thursday night. Mississippi law does not provide for recounts or runoffs in federal Senate elections. Colom, a prosecutor, would become Mississippi's first Black senator since Reconstruction if he confirms his lead.
With the new majority, Democrats will have to answer for rising fuel and farm input costs, trade concerns and the effects of global conflicts, while negotiating with a White House that may see little incentive to cooperate. The most immediate question is whether the power shift will alter the farm bill negotiations, even though farm leaders from both parties had expressed their commitment to a bipartisan deal this year.
Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley broke with his party's stance by acknowledging he might consider a two-year extension of the SNAP cost-share to win Democratic support. "I hate to talk about compromising on getting fraud out of food stamps, but there may be some sort of compromise. We'll have to work with the Democrats to get 60 votes and get the bill out," he said. "It'll take some compromise, maybe on this food stamp issue." Grassley called a two-year, $18 billion arrangement "irresponsible," but added: "On the other hand, we have the possibility of getting E15 if we pass this farm bill, and that's $14 billion more in farmers' pockets, so that's what I have to analyze."
Consultant Mary Kay Thatcher expressed skepticism about passage of a full farm bill this year and predicted an extension. "We are going to have a farm bill extension. I have no doubt that will happen," she said. Meanwhile, former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp called the result "a reset button for bipartisanship when it comes to the farm bill and farm policy," and former Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson warned that "you can't run farm policy on just one party. If you do, you'll end up going back and forth and farmers will get whipsawed."
Democrats also took the state agriculture commissioner posts in Texas and Georgia: Clayton Tucker, secretary of the Texas Farmers Union, defeated Republican Nate Sheets, and Katherine Juhan-Arnold unseated Republican Commissioner Tyler Harper. Republicans won five of the seven such statewide races, with reelections in Florida, Iowa and North Dakota.
An analysis by the National Taxpayers Union argues that tariffs influenced the outcome: seven states with the highest tariff costs for households elected Democratic senators. Michigan was the hardest hit, with a total cost of $27 billion, about $6,485 per household through September; it was followed by Georgia with $24 billion, about $5,525 per household. South Carolina paid $11 billion since 2025, about $4,664 per household, and Texas $45 billion, about $3,866 per household. "The time has come for Congress to reassert its Article I, Section 8 constitutional authority. No more tariffs without a vote of Congress," the organization said.
Faced with the new balance of power, consultant Randy Russell anticipated more active oversight of agencies such as USDA and FDA. "You'll see much more active oversight of agencies like USDA and FDA. And, by the way, I'm not saying that's a bad thing. … That leads to more accountability. It needs to be done on the record, and I think it ultimately leads to better decisions and a better understanding by members of Congress of why certain decisions are being made," he said.
