In October 2026 Argentina had 1,435,463 dairy cows, 55,276 fewer than a year earlier (-3.71%), according to OCLA, based on Senasa data. The price paid to producers rose only 1.3% month-on-month and lagged behind costs.
The deterioration in the milk price is leading producers, especially small and medium-sized ones, to accelerate culling and sell cows to obtain cash. According to the Observatorio de la Cadena Láctea Argentina (OCLA), based on Senasa data, in October 2026 the dairy herd stood at 1,435,463 cows, 55,276 fewer than a year earlier, a year-on-year drop of 3.71%.
The reduction of the herd accelerated markedly: in September the year-on-year decline had been just 0.38%, while in October it jumped to 3.71%. Taking October 2024 as a reference, the loss amounts to 72,276 animals.
Producers, technicians and industry players note that some dairy farms are selling animals that are at the end of their productive life, that have health or reproductive problems, or whose production levels are not enough to justify maintenance costs. Under different economic conditions, some of those animals could have stayed on the farms for at least one more lactation.
The phenomenon combines the lag of the milk price paid to producers behind costs with the relatively attractive value of cull cows, whose sale provides immediate income. In October, the average price of milk paid to producers was 550.25 pesos per liter, with a nominal monthly increase of only 1.3%, according to SIGLeA.
The scenario is also reflected in the structure of the sector: in October there were 8,702 dairy farms, 2.67% fewer than a year earlier. In addition, for the first time in several months there was a year-on-year decline in the average number of cows per farm, which went from 167 to 165.
Although the acceleration of culling raises a warning flag, the sources consulted do not currently anticipate a drop in production. Projections envisage 2026 closing with around 3% more milk than the previous year and growth of between 1% and 2% in 2027.
In that context, the recent improvement in international dairy prices and the seasonal reduction in supply after the October production peak could generate greater competition among processors for raw material. Some players in the chain hope that combination will allow producer prices to improve between December and January, although the outlook remains uncertain given the evolution of the domestic market and weather conditions.
