China imported 143,000 tonnes of beef in September, 55% less year-on-year and the lowest volume in six years. Brazil's share fell from 64% to 35%, while Argentina, Uruguay and Australia gained ground.
China imported 143,000 tonnes of beef in September, 55% less year-on-year and the lowest volume in six years, since the 142,000 tonnes of May 2020.
The quota scheme for the main suppliers, which began this year and is expected to run until 2028, along with the early exhaustion of the quotas for Brazil and Australia, were decisive in a result that was not anticipated by the market or by analysts. It is the third consecutive month of growing year-on-year declines: 14%, 19% and now 55%. In the nine-month cumulative, China bought almost 2.1 million tonnes, 11% less than in the same period of 2025.
With the sharp reduction in the total volume entering the country and the drop in shipments from Brazil, the main supplier, the share of the world's leading exporter went from 64% in August to 35% in September. On a smaller total, Argentina advanced from 17% to 28%, Uruguay from 5% to 10% and Australia from 4% to 9%; New Zealand added three points and Canada and Bolivia gained two points each.
The average value of a tonne of boneless frozen beef, the main product in China's foreign trade, recovered $100 in September, after falling $100 per tonne in July from the recent June peak and another $150 in August. With that, it moved back very close to that peak and stood 19% higher year-on-year.
Both Brazil and Australia shipped in the first half of the year well above what their quotas allowed and exhausted them shortly after mid-year. According to estimates by Valor Carne, Brazil has accumulated a surplus of 115,000 tonnes, and October shipments are still to come, since from November it will be able to ship for entry under the 2027 quota. Australia, for its part, exceeded its quota by around 38,000 tonnes, and October and November shipments are still pending.
In addition to setting a total quota somewhat lower than 2025 imports, China granted quotas to Uruguay, New Zealand and the United States that, for various reasons, will remain largely unfilled, which aggravates the shortfall in imported beef. Argentina was the only supplier that methodically met its quota and can continue shipping for the rest of the year; it will even have some left over, since it is estimated that it could sell 85,000 tonnes, close to double the average for a month and the volume that is missing, given that from November it can also enter under the 2027 quota.
As a result of all this, China could end up buying 300,000 tonnes less than what its smaller total quota forecast, with a year-on-year decline unseen in more than 10 years of explosive growth.
