Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada kept its October projections nearly unchanged, with total production of 95.88 million tonnes. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for 2026/27 were cut to 11.82 million tonnes, from the 12.32 million estimated in September.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) published on Oct. 20 its monthly supply and demand projections, which included only minor revisions compared to September's figures. The agency's balance sheets are a reference for price direction in commodity markets.
Total grain and oilseed production for 2026/27 was practically unchanged at 95.88 million tonnes, versus the 95.87 million estimated a month earlier. Total ending stocks for the segment were cut to 11.82 million tonnes, from the 12.32 million projected in September, and came in below the 12.72 million of the 2025/26 cycle.
Regarding the harvest, AAFC noted that work in Western Canada remains behind historical averages, although progress improved thanks to drier weather between late September and early October. In the East, corn and soybean harvests are progressing in line with historical averages, with limited delays due to localized weather events.
Within the grain and oilseed balance sheet, wheat production held at 36.12 million tonnes, with exports projected at 28.75 million, above the 28.50 million of the previous report, and ending stocks of 5.65 million versus 5.80 million. For durum wheat, exports rose from 5.05 million to 5.30 million tonnes, while ending stocks fell from 1.50 million to 1.35 million.
On corn, production was revised slightly higher, to 16.56 million tonnes from 16.55 million, but exports were cut from 2.60 million to 2.50 million and ending stocks from 2.10 million to 1.95 million. Canola kept its production at 22.05 million tonnes and its exports at 7.70 million, with ending stocks of 1.97 million, just below the previous 1.98 million. For soybeans, ending stocks fell from 0.53 million to 0.40 million tonnes, with production and exports steady at 7.46 million and 5.40 million, respectively.
In pulses and special crops, the agency left production and export figures unchanged from September. Total production stood at 6.85 million tonnes, below the 8.66 million of the 2025/26 cycle, and total exports at 6.00 million versus 6.02 million in the previous period.
Total ending stocks for the segment held at 3.11 million tonnes, below the 3.22 million of 2025/26. Among the main crops, dry pea production was 3.26 million tonnes and lentil production 2.47 million, unchanged in both cases from the September report.
