With Ukraine out of the market due to the Black Sea logistical blackout, Mercosur leads global corn supply: Brazil would add shipments of 6.01 million tonnes in November and Argentina has accumulated DJVE for 39.8 million in the 2025/26 cycle.
With Ukraine out of play due to the Black Sea "logistical blackout," Mercosur —led by Brazil and Argentina— has taken the lead in the global supply of corn.
In the current month of November, Brazilian corn shipments should total 6.01 million tonnes, a figure barely above that recorded in the same month of 2025. Nevertheless, thanks to growth in domestic demand —largely the result of increased corn ethanol production— Brazilian corn exports this year will be substantially lower than those recorded in 2025.
In Argentina, the Declaraciones Juradas de Ventas Externas (DJVE) for corn for the current month of November stand so far at 3.31 million tonnes and, in the 2025/26 marketing cycle to date, total 39.8 million. There is still a good stretch to go to complete the 45.0 million forecast by the Secretaría de Agricultura of Argentina, although that target is likely to be met, since the 2025/26 marketing cycle ends in February next year.
The pressure of international demand on South American corn in the off-season is beneficial for producers in the region, although it poses a logistical problem for wheat, which is in the middle of its harvest period in the region.
For reference, the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario estimates that, with the quotations of last November 4, the theoretical FAS for Rosario corn stood at USD 172.4/tonne, while the average traded price, according to the A3 Mercados reference, ended on that date at USD 181.0/tonne.
The fact that Mercosur is a reliable supplier of corn year-round is not "free" for the US, a country that is in the middle of its grain harvest. As of last October 29, according to the latest official data reported by the USDA, the US corn trade commitment for 2026/27 represented 30% of the projected exportable supply, versus 43% on the same date last year and 41% in the average of the last five years.
In that context, FOB prices for South American corn remain firm, while values for US corn show a bearish trend in line with the seasonal harvest phase.
