Argus Media cut its forecasts for DAP in India and MAP in Brazil, anticipating declines toward the end of 2026 and early 2027, while StoneX expects prices to hold firm on high sulphur costs.
Phosphate fertilizer prices are expected to decline over the next twelve months, according to Argus Media's projection, although the scale of that correction divides market analysts.
The firm revised down its October forecast for diammonium phosphate (DAP) into India — the benchmark market for that product — which came in well below its July projection. “Prices are expected to ease into the end of the year and into early 2027,” Jay Harland, senior analyst at Argus, said during a recent webinar.
The decline, however, would not be too pronounced given the absence of Chinese exports, constrained Moroccan output and logistical disruptions in Russia. Those factors limit global DAP availability and create a floor for the product. “Import dependence remains high, and Chinese supply is not expected to return this calendar year, limiting the scale of the correction,” he added.
The downward revision was more pronounced in the case of monoammonium phosphate (MAP). The October projection for the MAP price in Brazil — the benchmark market for that product — came in “materially below” the July forecast. Declines are anticipated for the rest of 2026 and much of 2027, as Brazilian buyers have shown an unwillingness to keep paying elevated levels.
Canada imports all its phosphate fertilizer needs, and the vast majority of that is MAP.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, does not share that view. “I don't share that (view) whatsoever,” he said. His outlook rests on the assumption that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constricted, which limits the flow of sulphur, a key input in the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers.
If trade through the strait remains constrained, production costs will hold at current levels and prices will remain elevated. Linville noted that U.S. corn futures fell below US$4.60 per bushel from a high of close to US$5.50 in September. The market expected that to push prices lower, given a likely cut in application rates; instead, Mosaic announced the temporary idling of its phosphate mine in Fort Meade, Florida, which pushed prices higher.
For Linville, as long as the cost of production remains high, any price decline will run into further supply curtailments.
Views also differ on China's return to the export market. Harland believes Chinese DAP and MAP exports will resume in May 2027, although a delay is a significant risk if costs for raw materials such as sulphur and sulphuric acid do not fall enough. Linville believes China's re-entry could be delayed as the country prioritizes rebuilding its depleted domestic inventories before exporting again.
Linville warned that his entire outlook for phosphates could be upended if the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Middle Eastern sulphur flowed back into global markets. “That will be incredibly bearish for phosphate around the world,” he said. “It will be rolling the ball down the hill at that point.”
Until that happens, growers around the world will cut back on DAP and MAP and turn to cheaper substitutes. Brazil's MAP imports in 2026 are at their lowest level in a decade as demand has shifted toward lower-cost products such as triple superphosphate (TSP).
Harland said TSP is becoming increasingly important in global phosphate trade due to substitution in key markets. Brazil, Bangladesh and India are the largest buyers of the product and Morocco is the main supplier. The United States is another potential TSP market following the temporary suspension of duties on Moroccan phosphate, although initial imports of the product have been modest.
Strong demand will keep the TSP market balanced through the rest of 2026, but prices are expected to fall in 2027 as seasonal demand fades in India and Brazil. TSP demand is also expected to soften when sulphur prices fall, improving the economics of single superphosphate, a competing product.
Linville argues that farmers are turning to products like TSP out of desperation and expects that heightened demand to evaporate once fertilizer markets finally normalize.
